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UID:0-8207@eng.ufl.edu
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260216T150000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260216T160000
DTSTAMP:20260216T125347Z
URL:https://www.eng.ufl.edu/news-events/events/bme-seminar-real-time-hemod
 ynamic-forecasting-clinical-risk-assessment-via-hybrid-mechanistic-modelin
 g/
SUMMARY:BME Seminar: "Real-time Hemodynamic Forecasting &amp\; Clinical Ris
 k Assessment via Hybrid Mechanistic Modeling..."
DESCRIPTION:T.J. Sego\, Ph.D.\nAssistant Professor\nLaboratory for Systems 
 Medicine\, Department of Medicine\nUniversity of Florida\n"Real-time Hemod
 ynamic Forecasting and Clinical Risk Assessment via Hybrid Mechanistic Mod
 eling: A Medical Digital Twin Approach for Improved Septic Shock Managemen
 t"\nAbstract: Septic shock is the most dangerous systemic manifestation of
  infection resulting in compromised end-organ perfusion. Current managemen
 t is largely reactive\, since it is currently difficult to predict decline
  in blood pressure in the intensive care setting. In this work\, we introd
 uce a framework for iterative Bayesian inference upon a mechanistic model 
 of the cardiovascular system for forecasting tachycardia and hypotension i
 n septic shock patients. We apply our framework to forecast heart rate and
  blood pressure from patients identified to have been diagnosed with septi
 c shock in retrospect. We generated a computational “digital twin” per
 sonalized to each subject’s real-time heart rate and blood pressure data
  via a combined mechanistic modeling and Bayesian inference approach. Our 
 digital twin is a dynamic virtual model of an individual’s relevant phys
 iology that allows for continuous forecasting of heart-rate and blood pres
 sure. This digital twin framework achieves &gt\;80% area under the receive
 r operator characteristic curve at forecasting hypotension and tachycardia
 . In a comparison with an existing clinical forecasting technology\, our a
 pproach delivers superior accuracy to predict hypotension over the same fo
 recasting periods and similar performance capability but over 24x greater 
 forecasting periods. Our approach represents a step towards personalized\,
  anticipatory therapy for the clinical management of septic shock.\nBio: M
 y career focus is to build a research program that produces computational 
 approaches and technologies that improve human health. Much of my research
  program operates around the concept of the medical digital twin. I believ
 e in a future where computers explain the underlying mechanisms responsibl
 e for observed human health\, in the same way that complex systems are mod
 eled and analyzed in modern engineering practice using theory and computer
  simulation. I have developed numerical and theoretical models and simulat
 ions of cellular and tissue dynamics with a focus on lung viral infection 
 and immune response. More recently\, my work has focused on real-time pati
 ent health forecasting and personalized medicine in critical care. I also 
 have a strong interest in promoting findable\, accessible\, interoperable\
 , and reusable (FAIR) biological models.
CATEGORIES:Seminars
LOCATION:Communicore Room C1-4\, 1249 Center Dr.\, Gainesville\, Florida\, 
 32610\, United States
GEO:29.648381;-82.348511
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