{"id":41577,"date":"2025-10-15T15:41:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T19:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eng.ufl.edu\/news\/?p=41577"},"modified":"2025-11-19T14:13:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T19:13:34","slug":"multi-university-ai-research-may-revolutionize-wildfire-evacuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eng.ufl.edu\/news\/research-innovation\/research-grants\/multi-university-ai-research-may-revolutionize-wildfire-evacuation\/","title":{"rendered":"Multi-university AI research may revolutionize wildfire evacuation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Armed with a nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/awardsearch\/showAward?AWD_ID=2536600&amp;HistoricalAwards=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$1.2 million National Science Foundation grant<\/a>, UF, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Utah are creating these AI-based models to simulate human behavior during evacuations \u2013 information that will help emergency managers shape more effective evacuation plans.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cStrengthening wildfire resilience requires accurate modeling and a deep understanding of collective human behavior during evacuations,\u201d said UF project lead Xilei Zhao, Ph.D., an associate professor with the <a href=\"https:\/\/essie.ufl.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment<\/a>. \u201cThere is a critical need for simulation models that can realistically capture how civilians, incident commanders and public safety officials make protective decisions during wildfires.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Existing simulation models face limitations, particularly with reliable predictions under various wildfire scenarios. New AI models can simulate how diverse groups of people behave and interact during the hurried scramble to seek safety. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"383\" height=\"287\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eng.ufl.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/249\/2025\/10\/Xilei-Zhao-Ph.D.jpg\" alt=\"Xilei Zhao, Ph.D.\" class=\"wp-image-41927\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Zhao\u2019s team is developing a convergent AI framework for wildfire evacuation simulations powered by psychological theory-informed large language models. Using UF\u2019s supercomputer HiPerGator, the team will produce simulation methods to promote teaching, training and learning, and support wildfire resilience by allowing public safety officials to use open-access tools.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u201cThis research seeks to be a transformative step toward improving the behavioral realism, prediction accuracy and decision-support capability of wildfire evacuation simulation models,\u201d Zhao said.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zhao partnered with Johns Hopkins professor Susu Xu, Ph.D., and University of Utah professors Thomas Cova, Ph.D., and Frank Drews, Ph.D.<a href=\"https:\/\/aclanthology.org\/2025.acl-long.1438.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0The preliminary results of the study<\/a>\u00a0were recently presented at the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn that paper, we started to train the model on the survey data we collected to see how we can accurately predict people&#8217;s evacuation decisions with LLMs,\u201d Zhao said.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Research objectives include extending the Protective Action Decision Model for civilians and public safety officials, developing psychologically theory-informed large language model agents for protective modeling and generating a realistic synthetic population as input for the simulation platform. The team also plans to develop learning-based simulations and predict human behavior under scenarios such as fire spread, warning and infrastructure damage.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This research comes at a critical time, as the number of wildfires has significantly increased globally. About 43% of the 200 most damaging fires occurred in the last decade leading up to 2023, according to a recent study in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adr5127\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Science<\/a>. The intensity, size and volume of wildfires are threatening more urban areas.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you go into the urban area, many people do not have cars, or they need additional mobility support,\u201d Zhao said. \u201cFor example, the LA fires impacted nursing homes with a lot of elderly people, many of whom are immobile or lack the ability to drive. That&#8217;s a big problem. This would be very relevant to them.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The large language models will provide important context for evacuation planning as well as real-time decision-making.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe envision this tool being used during planning,\u201d Zhao said, \u201cso emergency managers can test different kinds of scenarios to determine how to draw the evacuation zones, where to issue the orders first and how to design the communications messaging.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Armed with a nearly $1.2 million National Science Foundation grant, UF, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Utah are creating these AI-based models to simulate human behavior during evacuations \u2013 information that will help emergency managers shape more effective evacuation plans.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":41581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-templates\/single-sidebar-none.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"featured_post":"off","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[31,63,57],"tags":[481],"class_list":["post-41577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-essie","category-research-grants","category-stories","tag-xilei-zhao"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Multi-university AI research may revolutionize wildfire evacuation - News from Herbert Wertheim College of Engineering<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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